US LNG goes where it is paid most. In 2026 that cost Europe its spring.
When Qatar went offline in March, Asia outbid Europe for US cargoes. Ships turned east, voyages more than doubled in length, Europe injected less gas, and TTF had to climb from €44.9 to €100.7 per MWh to win the cargoes back. For December delivery Europe still pays slightly more than Asia; the risk now is a cold late winter.
The fortnight ahead, 29 October
The last two weeks, why Europe is paying so much, the weather for the next fifteen days, where prices could be in two weeks and how often that range has held.
- 0:05The last two weeks
- 0:28Why Europe pays so much
- 0:58The next fifteen days
- 1:11Two weeks out: the price range
- 1:27One lesson from the past
Where LNG actually trades: forward curve, storage and the winter ahead
LNG is sold 45–60 days before delivery, so a cargo's destination is usually known about 30 days before it loads. The signal is in the forward curve, storage and the long-range forecast, read together.
The decision window
Cargoes for December delivery are being placed now. With TTF at $32.85 and the JKM front month at $32.03, Europe pays more than Asia by $0.82, and Asia needs to pay about $1–2 more to make the longer voyage worth it. Flexible cargoes loading in the next weeks should lean towards Europe; our live departures will show whether they do.
The TTF curve for December rose €42 in three months
Our free feed has no settlement for some TTF months; those are left as dotted gaps rather than filled in. JKM monthly contracts are not freely available.
Storage could end the winter near 11%
A colder February and March in Europe
What the curve, storage and weather say
- December cargoes lean to Europe. TTF for December is $0.82 above JKM and Asia is forecast near normal, so there is little reason for flexible cargoes to make the long trip east.
- The risk is late winter. 80–86% of seasonal runs make February and March colder than normal in Europe. With storage at 75%, that points to about 11% on 31 March, against 28% last spring.
- So the refill gets expensive. Ending March near 11% means injecting about 891 TWh next summer, 184 TWh more than this year. The curve already prices May 2027 at €75, roughly twice a normal summer.
The strongest El Niño on record is building. What it means for gas
The Pacific is 3.4°C warmer than normal in the Niño 3.4 region, and NOAA gives an 83% chance this becomes the strongest event since records began in 1950. We went through every winter since 1950 to see what strong El Niños did to the weather in Europe and Asia, and to the routes LNG takes.
Ahead of 1997 and 2015 at the same point
Asia: strong El Niño means a milder winter
Europe: usually milder, but not reliably
The super events were mild from November to January
El Niño dries out the Panama Canal
El Niño could add 3 to 8 points of storage, if Europe follows history
Drought in Colombia and Brazil pulls cargoes south
What a super El Niño means for this winter
- Asia probably needs less. 8 of 9 strong El Niño winters were milder in North-East Asia (-3% heating demand). Fewer Asian spot bids means more flexible US cargoes for Europe, in line with the December spread.
- Europe is the open question. History says mild: the three super events all were, with 8% fewer heating degree days. ECMWF's seasonal forecast says February and March turn colder. Between them, EU storage could end March anywhere from 11% to 25%.
- Logistics tighten anyway. Gatun Lake is 15% short on rain. A restricted Panama Canal sends Asia-bound cargoes around the Cape, about eight days longer, and dry hydro in Colombia and Brazil pulls extra cargoes south.
- Prices: context, not proof. JKM fell 40–46% from November to March in 2015/16 and 2023/24, the two strong El Niño winters in our price history. Prices also fell in years without one, so we do not build a forecast on it.
A cold fortnight on both sides, and a wide price range
What just happened
- TTF rose from €87.1 to €100.7 per MWh, the highest since December 2022.
- JKM went from $26.39 to $32.35. Asia climbed faster: Europe's premium shrank from +2.21 to +0.50 $/MMBtu.
- Weather was close to normal in North-West Europe (−0.2°C), so this was not a weather rally. It was a supply scare: a tanker attacked off Yemen on 17 October.
- Storage stands at 75.0%, against 82.9% a year ago.
What to watch
- Europe −1.8°C vs normal, 27% more heating demand; 100% of forecast runs are colder than normal.
- Asia −0.9°C, 92% of runs colder. Both basins compete for the same flexible cargoes.
- The spread sits near zero: contested. A move below −$1.25 would pull cargoes to Asia two to three weeks later.
TTF closed at €100.7. In 80% of comparable fortnights the price ended between €91.9 and €111.0; the middle half between €96.3 and €105.5.
JKM closed at $32.35. The 80% range runs from $28.23 to $40.10, with more room upwards: Asia's winter is just starting.
Ranges come from 598 historical ten-trading-day moves in the same season (2017 onwards for TTF), rescaled to today's volatility. They describe how much prices usually move, not where they will go. Not investment advice.
The fleet right now, and where it is heading
Click a direction to filter the map. Many laden ships broadcast no real destination: the decision is often public only days before arrival.
Ships leaving US terminals right now
Destinations are set about 30 days before loading, against the forward spread. What leaves the terminals today confirms decisions taken a month ago: a check on the 45–60 day view, not a lead on it.
57% headed for Europe
Fewer US cargoes than our normal are heading for Europe. In the official data since 2020, a share below the yearly median was followed by TTF +3.7% on average over the next ten trading days.
The direction was right 59% of the time (171 tests, ±8 points), measured on official DOE cargo data. Live it runs on our own AIS, logged from 29 Oct: no call resolved yet; the first one resolves after ten trading days.
More cargoes now sail without a destination: 45% left "for orders" in the last two weeks, up from 11% in mid-September. Sellers are keeping cargoes open while Europe and Asia bid against each other.
How we read it: a departure is a laden carrier leaving a US terminal after at least six hours at the berth. Direction comes from the track (north-east past 33°N is Europe; south past the Windward Passage is not) or from the destination the crew broadcasts. "For orders" ships are left out of the share. Own AIS receivers via aisstream.io cover the US Gulf coast only partly: we see roughly 60% of US departures. Europe-bound ships stay in range longer, so our raw share runs well above the official 59%: we compare it with its own median and will calibrate it against DOE data once September and October are published.
Europe's pull, day by day
By terminal
Recent laden departures
| Ship | Terminal | Left | Draught | Broadcast destination | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabine Pass | 10 Nov | 9.8 → 11.4 m | FOR ORDERS | For ordersAIS | |
| Freeport | 10 Nov | 9.4 → 11.5 m | JP SBK | AsiaAIS | |
| Cameron | 10 Nov | 9.7 → 11.9 m | JP SOM | AsiaAIS | |
| Calcasieu Pass | 10 Nov | 9.3 → 11.3 m | NLRTM | EuropeAIS | |
| Sabine Pass | 10 Nov | – → 11.4 m | GB MLF | EuropeAIS | |
| Sabine Pass | 10 Nov | 9.3 → 11.6 m | OPEN SEA FOR ORDERS | For ordersAIS | |
| Corpus Christi | 9 Nov | – → 11.7 m | OPEN SEA FOR ORDERS | For ordersAIS | |
| Freeport | 9 Nov | – → 11.5 m | FOR ORDERS | For ordersAIS | |
| Sabine Pass | 9 Nov | 9.4 → 11.7 m | AIN SUKHNA-EGYPT | Egypt / Middle EastAIS | |
| Corpus Christi | 8 Nov | – → 11.6 m | TR MAR | EuropeAIS | |
| Cameron | 8 Nov | – → 11.5 m | PA CTB | AmericasAIS | |
| Sabine Pass | 8 Nov | 9.3 → 11.7 m | FOR ORDERS | For ordersAIS | |
| Corpus Christi | 7 Nov | 9.4 → 11.6 m | OPEN SEA FOR ORDERS | For ordersAIS | |
| Cameron | 7 Nov | 9.5 → 11.5 m | FOR ORDERS | For ordersAIS | |
| Freeport | 7 Nov | 9.4 → 11.5 m | FOR ORDERS | For ordersAIS |
Track record
| Date | Share to Europe | Call for TTF | TTF then | 10 days later | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov | 57% | higher | €84.0 | pending | – |
| 10 Nov | 59% | higher | €82.0 | pending | – |
| 9 Nov | 64% | higher | €85.6 | pending | – |
| 8 Nov | 74% | higher | €85.6 | pending | – |
| 7 Nov | 75% | higher | €85.8 | pending | – |
| 6 Nov | 77% | no call | €90.6 | pending | – |
| 5 Nov | 77% | higher | €88.6 | pending | – |
| 4 Nov | 77% | higher | €91.3 | pending | – |
| 3 Nov | 77% | no call | €95.3 | pending | – |
| 2 Nov | 76% | higher | €103.9 | pending | – |
| 1 Nov | 73% | higher | €103.9 | pending | – |
| 31 Oct | 75% | higher | €103.9 | pending | – |
What changed, generated from the data
Latest
−0.79 $/MMBtu: asia +$0.50 to $1.25
Since 2024, cargoes loaded in this regime went 56% to Europe and 27% to Asia.
Who buys US LNG
Move the spread, see where the ships go
Based on 4,390 US cargoes since 2024. At 161 cargoes a month, Europe would get about 94, and the trade would keep about 223 carriers busy.
One spread decides where the marginal cargo goes
In 2023 price did not matter: Europe needed every molecule after Russia. From 2024 the lines move with the spread. Taking out the seasonal pattern, each dollar that JKM gains on TTF moves about five percentage points of US exports away from Europe, one to two cargoes a week. Most volume sails under long-term contracts; this is the flexible slice.
Two benchmarks moving as one since the Hormuz shock
What the Hormuz shock did to Europe, step by step
Growth went to Asia
Europe filled slower
Egypt: from exporter to the #1 buyer
Egypt turned net importer in late 2024 and peaks in summer (solid bars, May–Aug), exactly when Europe injects. It now competes with Italy and Spain for Atlantic cargoes.
Do ships change direction at sea? Rarely.
Declared destination vs where the ship discharged
We rebuilt each voyage from satellite port calls: load at a US terminal, then the first real discharge port, skipping canals, bunker stops and anchorages, and matched it to the destination the exporter reported to the US Department of Energy. 262 voyages matched; only 6 crossed between regions. Swaps stay inside a region (Japan ↔ Korea, Italy ↔ Spain), and some declared destinations, such as Malta and Singapore, look like placeholders.
So the Europe-or-Asia decision is made on the dock, not on the ocean. The real lead time for Europe is the loading programme at US terminals, two to three weeks before a ship appears in the North Sea.
Caveats: DOE destinations are filed after the month ends, so some diversions may already be folded in. The 330 carriers are ships our radar has seen near North-West Europe; their worldwide voyages are included, but the sample leans Atlantic.
Asia ties up a ship 2.5 times longer
0 of 66 via Suez
- Cape of Good Hope54 · 37.5d
- Panama12 · 29.6d
- Suez / Red Sea0
Loitering on US voyages
- Atlantic off South America359
- Mediterranean293
- Open Atlantic213
- Iberia / Bay of Biscay210
- Strait of Gibraltar205
- North Sea coast46
Some cargoes do wait for orders
The few cargoes that ended up somewhere else
| Ship | Loaded | Declared | Discharged | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imsaikah | 29 May | Brazil | Thailand | 48.1 |
| Lngships Empress | 28 Jun | Dominican Republic | Croatia | 17.5 |
| Hl Fortuna | 11 Jul | France | Egypt | 17.3 |
| Barzan | 12 Jul | South Korea | Trinidad | 5.6 |
| Gaslog Windsor | 2 Aug | Spain | Honduras | 4.9 |
| Lngships Empress | 12 Aug | United Kingdom | Dominican Republic | 3.6 |